منابع مشابه
Model error in weather forecasting
Operational forecasting is hampered both by the rapid divergence of nearby initial conditions and by error in the underlying model. Interest in chaos has fuelled much work on the first of these two issues; this paper focuses on the second. A new approach to quantifying state-dependent model error, the local model drift, is derived and deployed both in examples and in operational numerical weath...
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We review various interpretations of the phrase “model error”, choosing to focus here on how to quantify and minimise the cumulative effect of model “imperfections” that either have not been eliminated because of incomplete observations/understanding or cannot be eliminated because they are intrinsic to the model’s structure. We will not provide a recipe for eliminating these imperfections, but...
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collaboration with Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO) are aimed at developing new conservative dynamical core for next generation operational weather prediction model. Within the frames of the project a new prototype model has been developed. The dynamical core of the model is based on anelastic set of equation and numerics adopted from the EULAG model. An employment of EULAG allowed t...
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Weather forecasting has become an important field of research in the last few decades. In most of the cases the researcher had attempted to establish a linear relationship between the input weather data and the corresponding target data. But with the discovery of nonlinearity in the nature of weather data, the focus has shifted towards the nonlinear prediction of the weather data. Although, the...
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In order to reduce the effect of numerical weather prediction (NWP) error on short term load forecasting (STLF) and improve the forecasting accuracy, a new hybrid model based on support vector regression (SVR) optimized by an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm (ABC-SVR) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model is proposed. According to the different day types and ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
سال: 2001
ISSN: 1607-7946
DOI: 10.5194/npg-8-357-2001